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Havelaar Food Risk Analytics
/04Publications

Selected publications

A thematic selection from over 200 peer-reviewed articles.

The publications below represent key contributions across my main areas of expertise. For a complete list, see my full profiles on ORCID, PubMed and Google Scholar.

Global Burden of Foodborne Disease

This body of work — pioneered at RIVM and carried out primarily in collaboration with WHO and the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) — produced the first comprehensive global estimates of the burden of foodborne disease, and has been updated through subsequent cycles.

  • Havelaar AH, Kirk MD, Torgerson PR, et al.; WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group. (2015). World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010. PLoS Medicine, 12: e1001923. PubMed →2300+ citations
  • Minato Y, Ingenbleek L, Roberts C, Kumapley R, Havelaar AH, Borghi E, De-Regil LM. (2026). WHO foodborne disease estimates 2000–21: bridging the burdens of infectious and non-communicable diseases. Lancet Global Health, published online. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.langlo.2026.103987. PubMed →
  • Lake RJ, Devleesschauwer B, Majowicz SE, Havelaar AH, et al.; WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group for 2021–25. (2026). WHO estimates of the global, regional, and national burden of 42 foodborne infectious and chemical hazards, 2000–21: an updated data synthesis. Lancet Global Health, published online June 3, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.langlo.2026.103994. PubMed →

Burden of Foodborne Disease: Methods & Applications

Development and application of DALY-based frameworks for measuring the public health impact of foodborne and infectious diseases — including national-level analyses for the Netherlands and Europe.

  • Havelaar AH, Haagsma JA, Mangen MJ, et al. (2012). Disease burden of foodborne pathogens in the Netherlands, 2009. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 156: 231–238. PubMed →
  • Devleesschauwer B, Haagsma JA, Angulo FJ, Havelaar AH, et al. (2015). Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease. PLoS ONE, 10: e0142498. PubMed →
  • Kretzschmar M, Mangen M-JJ, Pinheiro P, Havelaar AH, et al.; BCoDE Consortium. (2012). New methodology for estimating the burden of infectious diseases in Europe. PLoS Medicine, 9: e1001205. PubMed →
  • Gibbons CL, Mangen M-JJ, Plass D, Havelaar AH, et al. (2014). Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods. BMC Public Health, 14: 147. PubMed →
  • Pires SM, Evers EG, Van Pelt W, Havelaar AH, et al. (2009). Attributing the human disease burden of foodborne infections to specific sources. Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, 6: 417–423. PubMed →
  • Beshearse E, Bruce BB, Nane GF, Havelaar AH, et al. (2021). Attribution of Illnesses Transmitted by Food and Water in the United States to Comprehensive Transmission Pathways using Structured Expert Judgment, United States. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 27: 182–195. PubMed →

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

Methods and applications for quantitative microbial risk assessment and risk-benefit assessment of bacteria, viruses, parasites and chemicals.

  • Teunis PFM, Havelaar AH. (2000). The Beta Poisson dose response model is not a single hit model. Risk Analysis, 20: 513–520. PubMed →
  • Havelaar AH, Swart AN. (2014). Impact of acquired immunity and dose-dependent probability of illness on quantitative microbial risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 34: 1807–1819. PubMed →★ Best Paper Award 2015, Risk Analysis
  • Havelaar AH, Mangen M-JJ, De Koeijer AA, et al. (2007). Effectiveness and efficiency of controlling Campylobacter on broiler chicken meat. Risk Analysis, 27: 831–844. PubMed →
  • Franssen F, Swart A, Van der Giessen J, Havelaar A, Takumi K. (2017). Parasite to patient: a quantitative risk model for Trichinella spp. in pork and wild boar meat. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 241: 262–275. PubMed →
  • Bouwknegt M, Verhaelen K, Havelaar AH, et al. (2015). Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment for human adenovirus, norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 198: 50–58. PubMed →
  • Havelaar AH, De Hollander AEM, Teunis PFM, et al. (2000). Balancing the risks of drinking water disinfection: Disability Adjusted Life-Years on the scale. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108: 315–321. PubMed →★ Rudolf Schülke Hygiene Preis 2001

Campylobacter: Epidemiology & Transmission

Source attribution, transmission dynamics, and the epidemiology of Campylobacter species across Europe and sub-Saharan Africa — including large-scale cohort work in Ethiopia.

  • Havelaar AH, Ivarsson S, Löfdahl M, Nauta MJ. (2013). Estimating the true incidence of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis in the European Union, 2009. Epidemiology & Infection, 141: 293–302. PubMed →
  • Singh N, Thystrup CAN, Hassen BM, Havelaar AH, et al.; CAGED Research Team. (2025). Transmission pathways of Campylobacter jejuni between humans and livestock in rural Ethiopia are highly complex and interdependent. Gut Pathogens, 17: 26. PubMed →
  • Mekuria Z, Deblais L, Ojeda A, Havelaar AH, et al. (2025). Host clustering of Campylobacter species and enteric pathogens in a longitudinal cohort of infants, family members and livestock in rural Eastern Ethiopia. Microbiome, 13: 225. PubMed →
  • Chen D, McKune SL, Yang Y, Havelaar AH, et al.; CAGED Research Team. (2025). Campylobacter colonization and undernutrition in infants in rural eastern Ethiopia — a longitudinal community-based birth cohort study. Frontiers in Public Health, 12: 1467462. PubMed →

Food Safety and Nutrition in Low-Resource Settings

Applied food safety risk assessment and exposure modelling in sub-Saharan Africa and rural Ethiopia, including work on microbial contamination of fresh produce, prioritisation and risk-benefit frameworks.

  • Kowalcyk B, Gorris L, Havelaar AH, et al. (2025). A Proposed Framework for Ranking and Prioritizing Food Safety Risks in Low Resource Settings Using Foodborne Disease Burden Metrics: A Case Study in Ethiopia. Journal of Food Protection, 88: 100525. PubMed →
  • Ganser C, Kagambèga A, Dione M, Havelaar AH, et al. (2026). Microbial Safety of Tomatoes in Burkina Faso: Estimating Prevalence and Concentration of Escherichia coli and Non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica via Pooled Sampling. Journal of Food Protection, 89: 100741. PubMed →
  • Wang Y, Yang Y, Slanzi CM, Havelaar AH, et al. (2025). Quantitative multi-pathway assessment of exposure to Escherichia coli for infants in rural Ethiopia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 19: e0013154. PubMed →
  • Adesogan O, Tiwari C, Havelaar A, et al. (2026). Investigating impact of the Un Oeuf trial on egg production and child egg consumption in Burkina Faso. Journal of Nutrition, 156: 101273.
  • Saha Turna N, Havelaar A, Adesogan A, Wu F. (2022). Aflatoxin M1 in Milk Does Not Contribute Substantially to Global Liver Cancer Incidence. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 115: 1473–1480. PubMed →
  • Adesogan AT, Havelaar AH, McKune SL, Eilittä M, Dahl GE. (2020). Animal source foods: Sustainability problem or malnutrition and sustainability solution? Perspective matters. Global Food Security, 25: 100325.
  • Ahmed IA, Ojeda A, Slanzi CM, Tiwari C, Hassen JY, Havelaar AH, McKune S. (2026). A mixed-methods investigation of infant and young child feeding practices in rural Ethiopia: integrating insights from surveys, direct observation, and qualitative research. Frontiers in Nutrition, 13: 1794352. PubMed →
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